Microgeneration Of Solar Photovoltaic Energy In A Forest Nursery: Real Options Approach


Tema: Sustentabilidade ambiental

Temas Correlatos: Desenvolvimento rural;

Acessos neste artigo: 8

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Felipe Soares Cavalcante , Rafaele Almeida Munis , Lucas Rodrigues Da Silva , Danilo Simões

Photovoltaic solar energy presents itself as an alternative to the growing demand for electricity because it is a sustainable energy source. However, in Brazil, investment projects with this technology can be considered incipient, so they are under uncertain conditions. Therefore, we analyze whether microgeneration of photovoltaic solar energy for a forest nursery through the Real Options Approach (ROA) is economically viable. The forest nursery is located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, characterized as sectorized with installed production capacity for 30 million seedlings per year of the Eucalyptus genus, which consumes approximately 200 thousand kW of electric energy annually. The capital expenditure for the installation of the system included 422 photovoltaic panels and 8 Grid-Tie inverters, therefore, the investment was USD 99,073. We built a dynamic evaluation model in which we incorporated options to defer the capital expenditure, expand the nursery energy coverage by 25% in the 5th year, abandon or continue the investment project. The traditional net present value, discounted at the weighted average cost of capital of 6.56% per year, was USD 119,352. Then, executing the Monte Carlo simulation, a volatility of 0.75 was obtained. Finally, an expanded net present value of USD 159,274 was obtained. It was concluded that the installation of photovoltaic solar energy for microgeneration of photovoltaic energy in the forest nursery is an economically viable option and the exercise of the combined real options increases the value of the investment project by 74.94%.

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