CLIMATE DYNAMICS OF SOUTHERN REGION OF MOZAMBIQUE: SPECTRAL AND FRACTAL ANALYSIS

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Tema: Agrometeorologia

Acessos neste artigo: 14


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Jone Lucas Medja Ussalu

ABSTRACT
In this study, we have applied the spectral and fractal analyses to time series of precipitation and extreme temperatures in order to understand the climate behavior of the southern region of Mozambique in the face of the climate change at global level. Observations along the period of 1960 - 2018 were used. We have determined the periodicity, the long term variability and the persistence of the climate variables. The rainy season behavior was also assessed. The results are related to the current global climate observations and projections contained in the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5). In particular, the signal of climate change in Mozambique is visible. Precipitation did not show a significant trend in its variability. However, a slight decrease is noticeable in the provinces of Gaza and Inhambane. The rainy season showed a tendency to a late start and an early end, resulting in a decrease of the season length. Extreme temperatures, on the other hand, showed a clear upward trend, with the increase being more pronounced for the minimum temperature than the maximum temperature. The maximum temperature increased by about 0.65 °C and the minimum temperature increased by about 1.2 °C during the analyzed period. All variables showed persistency indicating that the observed behavior is likely to continue for a long period in future.

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COMENTÁRIOS
Foto do Usuário Rafael Aldighieri Moraes 23-04-2021 20:20:37

Artigo interessante e necessário no momento atual, com as discussões sobre aquecimento global e seus impactos. Estes, principalmente, em região ainda tão carente na agricultura e segurança alimentar da população. Infelizmente o estudo indica a queda da precipitação, principalmente no sul, que já é seco, o que pode prejudicar ainda mais a segurança alimentar. Acredito que valha a pena inserir essa discussão, em relação a piora da produção agrícola no futuro, pelo menos no sul de Moçambique.